Home Where the Heart is in Qualifier Campaign – Rob Carroll

Rob Carroll from TOCA Sports got a mention on The Independent site this morning in an article written by Colm Keys

Wednesday 17 July 2013

Matthew Donnelly, Tyrone Vs Kildare (14-4-2013)

A home draw in the qualifiers is worth its weight in gold, especially if it involves two teams from the same division in the league, an analysis of results from 2008 to 2012 shows.

Rob Carroll, who looks after the gaelicstats.com website, found that when teams from the same division played each other there was an 81pc success rate from 16 games for the home side.

Only once have two Division 1 teams met in a qualifier, outside of the last round, in the five years involved.

In contrast, all games, some of which may involve huge disparity in standards, saw a home success rate of 55.91pc from 93 games.

The 81.25pc home record for teams from the same division is significant because this weekend’s qualifier games involve Kildare and Tyrone (Division 1), and Wexford/Laois and Galway/ Armagh in Division 2.

The research also found that when teams from the same or one division apart played each other at non-neutral grounds there was a 59.66pc rate of home success.

As the gap between the league divisions got greater (two to three divisions apart) the figure for home wins dipped to 48.39pc as the natural gap between the respective teams kicked in.

An Irish Independent analysis of home advantage in the league last year found that the success rate for the hosts was 60pc.


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Applying Common Sense to Wide Count – Rob Carroll

Here’s a snippet and a few quotes from an article that appeared in The Irish Examiner on June 17, 2013.

By Michael Moynihan


Inspired by Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, Rob Carroll has taken to crunching the numbers in GAA — but discovered one manager’s fish is another’s foul when it comes to stats.

He decided to analyse as many games as possible beginning in 2011; the only obstacle was the absence of data, which doesn’t exist in the GAA to the extent it does in other sports, notably baseball.

“GAA teams were collecting bits and pieces of information themselves but I got a couple of students on board then and examined the televised championship games that season.

“There’s a difference between what a team wants, what a governing body wants and what the media want. We’re still so early in GAA statistics, though, that you can’t turn around and say ‘that stat is useless’.

“So along with actually collecting the information, we’re trying to work out what’s useful and what’s not along the way.”

To read the article in full click on the link below:



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